Nato, War, Nukes: What Should we Expect from Trump? London Conference 2025

“Originally published by Labour Outlook; republished with permission: NATO, War & Nukes – What Should We Expect from Trump?”

Months of speculation about changes to US foreign policy will be brought to an end when Trump is inaugurated as US President on 20 January. In the first of a two-part series about US foreign policy, Carol Turner reflects on what we should, and should not, expect from President Trump’s second term. 

A joint meeting of the US Congress on Monday certified the results of the presidential election results, formally declaring Donald Trump the winner and reminding us that his inauguration is only a fortnight away. Months of speculation about likely changes to the US foreign policy will be clarified as Trump rolls out his policies in the weeks and months that follow.

• What will a Make America Great Again White House mean for Nato and nuclear strategy?

• To what extent are relations with what China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea likely to change?

• Will Israel be free to continue its slaughter in the Occupied Territories?

• Will Trump encourage Netanyahu to pursue his military rampage across the Middle East?

• Can the Trump really end the war in Ukraine?

The veil will be lifted on some of these and other strategic issues once Trump is in the Oval Office. Meanwhile, he has already begun announcing his views on a range of foreign policy issues – from the Panama Canal to Greenland. The most recent, and perhaps most concerning of these is his call for a military spending hike by Nato member states to 5% of national GDP. More than anything else, this strongly suggests a continuation of the drive to war.

Media speculation about who’s in, who’s out, and who’s a contender for influence in Trump’s administration began even before the election result was announced last October, and what individual appointments would likely mean for White House policy. By the end of December, as Trump revealed the names of his nominees for the top jobs, media speculation reached a near-frenzy.

The transfer of power from one president to another is an extensive, three-month process in the United States. Many of the government posts occupied by civil servants in Britain are political appointments in the US. US presidents make around 4,000 of these, and more than a quarter require Senate approval.

Confirming Trump’s picks for office is made easier by Republican control of the House and Senate as well as the White House. But Senate approval is more than a shoo-in. There’s been one hi-viz withdrawal already. Matt Gaetz stood down as Attorney General nominee when it was made clear he lacked sufficient support.

As preparations for the hearings began, Senate Majority Leader John Thune pointed out it was still unclear if all Trump’s appointments would be accepted. Many of the challenges are to military and intelligence appointments. The Defence Secretary is one of the most important, but nominee Pete Hegseth might not make it. The confirmation of Kash Patel as FBI Director and Tulsi Gabbard as Director of National Intelligence is also said to be uncertain.

Trump’s choice for his top team, is no guarantee of what the foreign policy agenda of the White House will be, What we do know for certain are the actions Trump took in his first presidential term. I will be outling some of them in a follow-up Labour Outlook article. Regardless of shifts in particular policies, Trump’s actions in 2017-21 show little room to think he’ll break the US trajectory to war.

London Region Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament is doing our bit to magnify CND’s message. The world is moving closer to nuclear war! Take action before it’s too late! Our 2025 annual conference, ‘Trump in the White House – Nato, war, nukes…. what should we expect?’, takes place online this Sunday. We will be looking at the likely impact of the second Trump presidency with a programme that includes:

• Jeremy Corbyn, reflecting on prospects for peace and justice,

• Sophie Bolt, laying out the real situation with nuclear weapons in Britain, and

• Vijay Prashad considering the impact of Trump’s presidency

We’ve also got:

• Jess Barnard on Israel’s war on Palestine

• Carol Turner on Nato and Ukraine and

• Keith Bennett on Asia-Pacific developments

• Peter Burt and Dave Webb, explaining how the Ukraine and Middle East are a testing ground for new tech weapons and a showcase for the arms industry

• Jenny Jones, Tony Staunton, and Angie Zelter discussing peace movement priorities

The fightback is now. Our job is to lift the veil on the real meaning of Trump’s presidency.

Register today

Ukraine: The Nuclear Danger Webinar

Catch up on Ukraine: The Nuclear Danger Webinar from December

Watch the webinar here

Trump prepares to enter the White House, the war in Ukraine has escalated, and US and British long-range missiles have been fired into Russian territory with the permission of President Biden and Prime Minister Starmer. In Russia President Putin has lowered the threshold for nuclear use to be able to respond to such attacks and has launched a new ballistic missile against Ukraine.

Explaining the escalating conflict London CND an met with CND to discuss "Ukraine: the Nuclear Danger" and the future implications.

On 1 December 2024, London CND heard from CND General Secretary Sophie Bolt, Chair of CND Tom Unterrainer, and Chair of London CND Carol Turner.

The webinar was chaired by Christine Shawcroft.

Sign the Pax Chrisiti Declaration Urging the UK and France to Honour Disarmament Treaty

This month, UK and France Pax Christie organisations have come together to encourage signing a declaration on the anniversary of the Lancaster House Treaties.

Made in November 2010, between the UK and France, these Treaties call for a “mutually beneficial long-term partnership in defence and security matters,”

Known as the Lancaster House Treaties, they recognise that “the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and their means of delivery is one of the most serious threats to international peace and security.” They state that both countries will work “to strengthen the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, one of the cornerstones of the international security architecture’ and will ‘support ongoing efforts in its three pillars: non-proliferation, the peaceful use of nuclear energy, and disarmament.”

Yet, fourteen years on, there is little, if any evidence that the two countries have taken any steps in this direction, despite the responsibility they bear as nuclear weapons states at a time when the threat of nuclear war is once more on the rise.

The Joint Declaration takes the opportunity provided by the anniversary of the Treaties to urge the leaders and governments of the UK and France to take meaningful and verifiable steps to honour their commitment to nuclear disarmament in the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). It encourages them to take a more constructive approach to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW).

The Declaration also emphasises that the need for nuclear disarmament is a part of the teaching of the Catholic Church, reaffirmed this year by the Bishops in the International Affairs Department of the England and Wales Bishop’s Conference in ‘Called to be Peacemakers: A Catholic approach to arms control and disarmament’. That document calls on the British government to fulfil its obligations under the NPT and ‘ultimately forsake its nuclear arsenal’ to help create ‘a world without nuclear weapons’.   It challenges the British Government to engage meaningfully with the processes of the TPNW and ultimately to sign and ratify the treaty itself. 

Read the treaty here:

British and French Joint Declaration on the anniversary of the Lancaster House Treaties

It is not too late for organisations and individuals to add their signature which you can do here: 

Sign the Declaration

The Declaration will be kept open until Monday 9th December when we will send a copy to the UK Government.